experts: real estate column Wednesday, October 16, 2013

2014 - The Return Of Our Stability

In the 'peak' or 'valley' jargon, most analysts would likely agree that we are slowly (but surely) bidding farewell to the low point of the trough.

By Alan  Skinner

Those regular readers of the "update" know that I spend 2/3rd of these "gentle rants" talking about cycles - for that I do not apologize (hopefully not confused with 'spin-cycles'). It is in our ability to judge the likely point we are at, at any particular time, that the most valuable knowledge to assist with decision making exists.

To buy, to sell, not to buy, not to sell - to wait, perchance to dream..... (sorry, wrong soliloquy.... likely wrong play too!!)

In the 'peak' or 'valley' jargon, most analysts would likely agree that we are slowly (but surely) bidding farewell to the low point of the trough. Personally I see that as having been on the 17th of July this year at 7:42pm just as I was pouring the guests their second glass of chardonnay (or was that the Merlot?....I forget, I refused to apologize in the second sentence .....this time, maybe I should....!)

Yes, hindsight is definitely more easily digested than prediction! Alright, by way by way of apology, or should that be "to atone" for my facetiousness, I will now beat myself with a spherical crystal object.

What will we be discussing (market wise) over our July 17th 2014 dinner with friends? In a nutshell - 3 to 5% higher selling prices and one half of 1% increase in 5yr mortgage rates with the likelihood of more increasing rate action as 2014 exits. A sidebar will be the surprise expressed by those of us sitting at this future table, as to how quickly the mid-2013 inventory of apartments seems to have been reducing (not gone, but not nearly as intimidating!) Oh yes, and Tortorella has coached a Stanley Cup win! OK forget that last one, not my area of expertise (more like wishful thinking).

Again to our 'Year to Date' figures for 2013. We now have 75% of the full results comparing 2013 with 2012. North Van detached homes sold are up 13% from last year, attached (t/hses) up from last year by 16% and apartments down by 9% from 2012. Detached average prices down 2% and inventory now down by 16% from 2012. Average prices down 3% (t/hses) and up 2% for (apts). Inventory (t/hses) 133 vs. 164 (down 18%) from Sept 30th 2012 and (apt) down 4% from the same date.

In West Van, detached number of sales YTD for 2013 is now up by 12% from Sept 30th 2012. Average price of what has sold is down by 2% and inventory now down by 1% from Sept 30th 2012. On the condo side - attached (t/hses) sold 2013 are now up by 15% from 2012 at 67 vs. 58 units with virtually no change in average price. Active listings are down year over year from Sept 30th 2012 by 15% (53 vs. 63). Apartments reflect 121 sold in 2013 vs. 131 (down 7%) from Sept 30th 2012; with average price up 5% from Sept 30th 2012 and active listings up 14% from Sept 30th 2012.

As mentioned last month, overall the Vancouver aggregate figures appear more positive than West Vancouver, with North Vancouver keeping closer to Vancouver. W/Van's performance is not surprising coming off 2012's stellar year. I continue using average YTD prices which are more meaningful as we have now passed the 3/4 way mark.

'SnapStats' (what price ranges are selling and which are not) is being very well received. I'm now forwarding the past 12 month trend for not only N and W/Van but ALL available metro neighbourhoods, as many requested. If any locations are not of interest, please ignore those areas.

So, visit my website to see and "hear" the new developments. I continue my commitment to keep you... www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca - the "go to" site for N/S R/Estate analysis and jump-off point for FULL market information.

Join those wishing to get the e-mail version of the "update" and SnapStats - send a request to alanskinner@shaw.ca; phone (604) 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca and you'll be added.




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Recent Articles by this columnist:

Keeping Realtors Honest
Tuesday, August 12, 2014


How well do we stack up?
Tuesday, July 29, 2014


Resistance to change and compliance delay
Wednesday, June 04, 2014


Of urban planning and municipal wisdom
Thursday, April 17, 2014


Yes, it's official - demand is rising
Tuesday, March 11, 2014


All articles by Alan  Skinner

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