experts: real estate column Tuesday, July 10, 2001

PAST THE HALFWAY MARK - CHRISTMAS WILL BE HERE BEFORE WE KNOW IT!

In a nutshell North Van real estate sales numbers are up.

By Alan  Skinner

In a nutshell North Van sales numbers are up all categories; West Van's are down in all (bar townhomes 36 units vs 34 last year). The North Shore "see" has "sawed" since last year!

What does it mean when numbers of sales change year over year? Our actual figures are [N/Van] attached (up by 65%), detached (up by 23%), apartments (up by 24%) - [W/Van] detached (down by 10%), attached (up by 6%), apartments (down by 12%). The reason I posed this question is that, on two occasions, folk have interpreted the Vancouver Sun?s article of early this month, which stated "all sales are up" as meaning that prices are climbing. This conclusion is by no means automatic but is often reached. Average prices are unchanged or down in all N/Van categories and well down in W/Van apartments, up in townhomes and down 1% in detached all over the map!

The only "honest" economic formula is that, as numbers of sales goes up (read higher demand) and as inventory falls (read lower supply) then, provided that demand continues (and supply remains even) prices will likely rise. Nearly 1/4 more detached homes have sold in N/Van so far this year and average price is almost identical but, in that there are only 80% of the number of houses on the market now vs end of June last year, prices may well be on an imminent "up tick?".

Remember, whenever one sees comments like "sales are up" always assume it means numbers unless the article goes on to prove that average (or median) price is higher. Also consider the significance of a 2 or 3% increase (or decrease) these are usually insignificant fluctuations. Is this a 3 or 4 month trend? Yes - then believe it!

Please join the group subscribing to the e-mail version of this "update" - send a request now to northshore@canada.com and you?ll be assured receipt, or phone me at 988-7368 for your monthly fax copy. Please don't hesitate to call/e-mail with any questions on local real estate, whether buying, selling or just looking at future options.

Alan is the host of "The Real Estate Show" (a Media Mentors' production) heard Sunday between 2 and 3 pm on CFUN AM 1410 - Listen in - Phone in with your questions!




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Recent Articles by this columnist:

Keeping Realtors Honest
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All articles by Alan  Skinner

Related Links:

http://www.alanskinner.com/

http://www.cfun.com/realestateshow.htm

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