experts: real estate column Thursday, March 20, 2008

Of Delays and the Inevitable

North Shore demand remains strong and our supply continues to be steady and that supply is certainly not excessive.

By Alan  Skinner

Regular readers may correctly notice a delay in receiving this update. The main reason is a 10 day sojourn in Montreal where we are presently sitting waiting for the train to Quebec city – delayed too – by 75 minutes. Could be worse, after experiencing our most dramatic snow storm ever which even the snow weary locals claim to have been the most vicious in many years. Mais oui – la Froid Provence!

Well, we’ve addressed the delay component – now, what, in a real estate sense, is the “inevitable”? Is it more of the same (high demand, rising prices) or the doomsayers’ deflationary downcycle? Or merely the prevailing penchant for plateauing? Enough alliteration already!! What I believe in as inevitable is the infallibility of the market forces of real estate supply and real estate demand. Especially as it applies to our highly desirable North Shore, where, after this past weekend I will insist that we have (comparatively) only snow flutters! Our demand remains strong and our supply continues to be steady and that supply is certainly not excessive.

And now the actual 2008 (two month) figures - North Van detached sold down 13% from last year, attached (t/homes) down 16% and apartments up 6% vs ’07. Detached average prices +23% and inventory now up by 12%. Average prices up 10% (t/hse) and up by 25% (apts). Inventory (t/hse) 14% higher than ‘07 and (apt) up from ’07 by 53%. This follows the overall inventory pattern but seems to be evident here “in spades” – somewhat attributable to a good supply of “new construction” units on the market.

In West Vancouver, detached number of sales up 10%. Average price up 21% and inventory now up 44% over ’07. On the condo side – attached (t/hses) sold are down by 12% from 2007; average price down 14% based on 7 vs 8 sales YTD. Active listings now over double last year at 44 vs 18. Apartments reflect 25 sold vs 23 by Feb ’07; with average price up (30%) from ‘07 and active listings at 83 even with ‘07. North Shore demand is still healthy with inventory overall appearing to be climbing.

I will continue to keep you informed as the year over year figures become more meaningful – at least 1/6th of a year is better than 1/12th - roll on the first quarter! Everything progresses and we are now whipping through a snow covered landscape heading to Quebec City. Ottawa by Friday!

Again, visit my website to see and “hear” the new developments. I continue my commitment to keep you ... www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca. This work in progress strives to be the “go to” site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

To join the group getting the e-mail version of this “update” - send a request now to alanskinner@shaw.ca and you’ll be assured receipt; phone me at (604) 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca. Feel free to forward to a friend!




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Recent Articles by this columnist:

Keeping Realtors Honest
Tuesday, August 12, 2014


How well do we stack up?
Tuesday, July 29, 2014


Resistance to change and compliance delay
Wednesday, June 04, 2014


Of urban planning and municipal wisdom
Thursday, April 17, 2014


Yes, it's official - demand is rising
Tuesday, March 11, 2014


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