experts: real estate column Monday, November 06, 2000

FEDERAL ELECTION WON?T EFFECT BUT WAIT FOR ...

Almost all local Real Estate analysts predict a strengthening (some, a dramatic one) in the local market once B.C. elects (an inevitable?) provincial Liberal government.

By Alan  Skinner

Almost all local Real Estate analysts predict a strengthening (some, a dramatic one) in the local market once B.C. elects (an inevitable?) provincial Liberal government. Indeed a recent Vancouver Sun article quotes Bill Phillips, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver as saying that Vancouver?s sales rise in October "could be in anticipation of a provincial election just around the corner". I fully endorse this viewpoint.

We still see evidence on the North Shore of a fairly conservative ?wait and see? approach, especially on North Van?s part, with detached sales continuing down (Oct?00/Oct?99) by 6.5%; attached down 23% and apartments down 28%. That?s the number of sales all average prices continue to run ahead of (YTD) 1999. In West Van however, the "flavour of the months" continues with detached sales (+21%), attached (+33%) and apartments (+6%) on an (Oct?00/Oct?99) YTD basis.

Again, I give a minor caution in that a continuing trend is evident in number of units for sale. The ?listings inventory? is generally up over last year in almost all categories e.g. detached N/Van (+19%), W/Van (+10%). The only minor contrarian is W/Van attached down 17% but this is likely less significant bearing in mind the smaller numbers i.e. 73 units for sale. We are not looking at an excessive number of listings, comparing the present with traditional levels for this time of year, and when the demand side of the equation returns (post election?), I believe these inventories may be absorbed without a drop in prices.

By the next Update, both our North American countries will have new governments and as I started off saying little change will likely emerge from either of these. It is still largely a buyers? market, especially in North Van and by mid-2001, I predict there will be a number of folk quoting the famous line ?gosh, I wish I?d bought last year?. Not a time for panic buying but one for judicious offers without competition.

Please don?t hesitate to call/e-mail with any questions on local real estate, whether buying, selling or just looking at future options.

Alan is the host of "The Real Estate Show" (a Media Mentors? production) heard Sunday between 2 and 3 pm on CFUN AM 1410 (?Talk with titude?) - Listen in Phone in with your questions!




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Related Links:

http://www.alanskinner.com/

http://www.cfun.com/realestateshow.htm

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