experts: real estate column Tuesday, June 03, 2003

Our North Shore family ... in relative terms

Would it interest you to know that approximately $760 billion of real estate has changed hands on our North Shore so far this year?

By Alan  Skinner

Would it interest you to know that approximately $760 billion of real estate has changed hands on our North Shore so far this year? Not quite up to last year's $840 billion (same five months) but, when you consider that over all, the number of units sold is down by about 20%, the 10% drop in dollar volume means that average prices must certainly have risen. The number of units which change hands tends to maintain a ratio of just over 2.5: 1; N/Van to W/Van. To complete this "pursuit of trivia", the total value ($760b) breaks down to $338b - W/Van and $421b - N/Van; that is 45% vs. 55%.

All inventories of homes are down, W/Van by 32% and N/Van by 29%, May 31/03 vs. May 31/02 and this, as we have said repeatedly of late, coupled with the high demand has been largely responsible for the rise in values. The interesting (no pun intended) development of the past month has been the downward pressure on mortgage interest rates (almost a full 1% drop in four weeks in the 5 year term rate). This, and other positive economic indicators, will in all likelihood encourage a renewed wave of interest in home buying (commencing at the lowest dollar levels and surging through the price spectrum - gotta love the imagery!)

The full figures - N/Van detached sales YTD, down 18%, attached (townhomes/duplexes)down 34% and apartments down 15%. May 31/03 inventory (supply) down by - detached 19%, attached 3% [*** big improvement from last month***] and apartments 45%. So then .... logically, the average prices? You guessed it (low supply, good demand) all up - detached by 16%, attached by 11% and apartments by 9%.

W/Van detached sales YTD down 15%, attached down 16% and apartments down 18%. May 31/03 inventory is down too - detached 21%, attached 40% and apartments 37%. Average price figures are mixed (remember that our samples are much smaller, therefore less reliable). Detached up 8%, attached down 19% and apartments up 3%.

Further predictions for the immediate future? Low supply - ad nauseum, a slight increase in the demand (interest rates having dropped), and gently rising prices. Home hunters, keep the faith - you will find that home. Contemplating sellers, call me and we'll add to the meagre inventory of "loaves and fishes"!

I remain ready, willing and able to assist Buyers and Sellers dealing with property on the North Shore. My strong suggestion is for you to "interview" me by visiting my website (www.AlanSkinner.com) - then call for a face-to-face meeting at (604-988-7368) - or pop into one of my open houses - I look forward to meeting you.




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Recent Articles by this columnist:

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