experts: real estate column Wednesday, April 05, 2000

VANCOUVER NUMBERS

Great news ... the real estate market is substantially better.

By Ozzie Jurock

March’s 2,234 sales were even with last year. The average price was up to $302,900 from $281,000 last year and active listings are down again. The average price rose in all categories, as did sales volume. Great news ... the market is substantially better.

                March/00  March/99     %
Units sold         2,234     2,238   00%              
Average price    302,900   280,900  +07%            
Active Listings   15,000    16,400  -08%

Detached sales     1,188     1,216  -02%
Condo sales          614       617   00%
Townhouse sales      337       344  -02%
________________________________________
Detached prices  387,900   356,700  +08%
Condo prices     188,915   173,700  +08%
Townhouse prices 231,900   220,300  +05%
Major Point: The last five year’s Average Price:
March 1996: $298,200,
March 1997: $283,200,
March 1998: $281,000,
March 1999: $281,000.

The March 2000 average of $302,900 is the best average price in 5 years. In fact since 1992, only 1995’s March (The Peak) was better at $329,500.

Prices in all sectors are up. Volume is even, listings are down. This is the bottom building phase, where the best deals are going to run out. While we do not need to worry about a ‘runaway’ market, we should stay close to the market. Prices have been higher, every month year over year since August 1999.

FRASER VALLEY NUMBERS
The Valley’s volume is still a disappointing 11% lower than last March. The condo average price is down by 10%, while the townhouse average clocked in some 9% higher.

                  March/00  March/99     %
Units sold           1,027     1,150  -11%
Average priceS.F.  248,800   245,300  +01%
Active Listings      8,710     8,125  -06%

Detached sales         578       616  -07%
Condo sales            108       146  -38%
Townhouse sales        146       160  -10%
__________________________________________
Detached prices     248,800  245,300  +01%
Condo prices        114,900  104,000  -10%
Townhouse prices    162,700  177,200  +09%
Major Point:
The last five year’s Average Price:
March 1996: $ 239,000,
March 1997: $ 247,000,
March 1998: $248,400,
March 1999: $245,300.

The March 2000 average of $248,800 is the highest average single family home price since 1992.

Condo sales are off by 38% (!) over last year, condo prices off by 10%. While we see a lot of deals clearing out (foreclosures, etc.) there still is an overhang of unsold properties depressing volume and prices. The single-family home area is stable, although here also fewer units changed hands.

Still, the median price of $100,000 in Mission,
$78,000 in Abbotsford, $114,900 in Langley,
$105,000 in white Rock, $89,000 in Surrey and
$97,0000 in North Delta shows that a full 50% of condos sell BELOW that median price for each area.
Within 1 hour of Vancouver these are now much better investments than even 5 years ago.

Look For Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Vancouver Island and the Okanagan numbers and forecasts in this week's Jurock's Facts by Fax.




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